MANIC-DEPRESSIVE MAN

By Jay Adams
Primary Thesis written in 1994
Epilogue written in August 2009

Part 1 - An Inefficient Market Hypothesis
Part 2 - Contrarianism & Stock Market Irrationality
Part 3 - Manic-Depressive Social Psychology
Part 4 - August 2009 Epilogue
Footnotes & References

 

OUTLINE
  1. An Inefficient Market Hypothesis
    1. Price Patterns In The Stock Market
      1. Dow Theory
      2. Elliott Waves
      3. Psychological Barriers
    2. Business Cycles & The Long Wave
      1. Business Cycles
      2. The Kondratieff Wave
  2. Contrarianism & Stock Market Irrationality
    1. The Empirical Case for Contrarianism
      1. Elliott Wave Premise
      2. Contrarian Investment Strategies
      3. Historical Speculative Extremes
      4. The Irrationality of the REH
    2. The Inaccuracy or Economic & Business Analyses
      1. Consistent Economic Forecasting Errors
      2. Consistent Business Earnings Forecast Errors
      3. Causal Explanation: Heuristics
    3. Market Irrationality & Value Investing
      1. Unreliable Expert Forecasts
      2. Low P/E Stocks
    4. Market Irrationality & Successful Market Timing
      1. Historical P/E Ratios
      2. Historical Dividend Yields
      3. Advisory Service Sentiment
      4. Mutual Fund Cash/Asset Ratios
      5. Secondary Offerings
    5. Market Irrationality as a Symptom of Social Insanity
      1. Financial Periodical Advertising
      2. Magazine Cover Effect
      3. Prechter's Theory on Popular Culture
  3. Manic-Depressive Social Psychology
    1. The Initial Discovery
    2. Manic-Depressive Syndrome
      1. Symptomology
      2. Seasonality
      3. Creative Genius
    3. The Diagnosis of Manic-Depressive Man
      1. Elliott Waves and Contrarianism
      2. Psychological Theories of the Business Cycle
      3. Kondratieff's Long-Wave and Severe Social Mood Swings
      4. Seasonality
    4. The Creative Disorder of Man
      1. Joseph Schumpeter, Business Cycles and Innovation
  4. August 2009 Epilogue
    1. Price Patterns in The Stock Market
      1. Dow Theory
      2. The Elliott Wave Principle
      3. Thousand Mark Psychological Barriers
    2. Contrarianism & Irrational Exuberance
    3. Manic-Depressive Mass Psychology & Seasonality
      1. Seasonality
      2. The Global Bipolar Disorder
      3. A Supernatural Warning?
    4. Conclusion